The BS podcast

Brad Page and I discuss what we learned during the first week of the College Football season

SANCHEZ WATCH DAY 20

WELCOME TO DAY 20 OF SANCHEZ WATCH: OREGON RETROSPECTIVE.

SANCHEZ WATCH PREDICTED THAT USC WOULD LOSE TO OREGON IF IT LOST THE TURNOVER BATTLE, AND INDEED, THAT IS WHAT TRANSPIRED.

However, SANCHEZ WATCH also did not anticipate the circumstance in which Sanchez could play heroic in defeat. In this, Sanchez watch was wrong.

Two of USC's three turnovers were Sanchez interceptions, but those were far from the most critical Trojan mistakes. The positives of Sanchez's play far outweighs the negatives.

There is no denying that he 3rd quarter INT was Sanchez's fault. The ball was thrown behind (as Petros mentioned on the broadcast) to a tight-end, who is primarily used as a blocker, and thus should probably not been thrown to in the first place. But QB's throw Interceptions from time to time and that one was intercepted at the Oregon 15 yard line, so it was really no worse than a punt.

The second interception, was a product of circumstance. USC painted itself into a corner, and with less than 10 seconds left, aggressive throwing was USC's only option. 20-seconds-left-need-a-touchdown-to-win drives almost always end in interceptions. And on that throw, Oregon's Matt Harper simply made a better play on the ball than the Trojan reciever.

Neither of those interceptions were the killers in this game. Of all the dumb stuff the team did (we had 80 yards of penalties to Oregon's 5), here are two moments that killed USC:

1. 1st quarter: Oregon fumbles the opening kick, USC starts out on the Oregon 21. On second down a personal foul gave USC 3rd and 20. Sanchez then passed to Joe McKnight for 19 yards, and Carroll decided to go on 4th and 1. The play call from Sark? A freaking END-AROUND on 4th and 1.

So McKnight had to run for four seconds along the line of scrimmage and try to round the corner. What? Are you serious? Of course, he lost yardage, and USC lost a HUGE scoring opportunity.

Sanchez got 4 yards or more on every QB sneak called in the AZ game, so I don't know why they didn't go there.

(Sark must have been scared about some matchup in the middle of the o-line because he called an outside run on every 4th down conversion attempt.)

That's actually two dumb mistakes (the PF, and the playcall) but it wasted one opportunity. The net result was, seven points left on the table.

2. The first half was a defensive struggle, so you can imagine how excited we were when Sanchez lead the Trojans on a 12 play, 5 minute scoring drive to open the second half. The D then forced an Oregon punt, and we felt like things were finally clicking. We might just beat these guys!

Then Stanley Havili fumbled on the USC 16. Oregon scored a TD in two plays, and for the rest of the game, we were tense, and playing catch-up.

So those are two touchdowns we gave away on dumb mistakes in a 1 touchdown game. And that's to say nothing of McKnight's TD run that was called back for holding (I didn't mention it because the holding gave him the big hole he ran through, but the 10 yard penalty killed the drive), the drive-saving Personal Fouls that we gave to the Ducks after huge defensive plays, and on it goes.

So what will this mean for Sanchez?

Coach Carroll has gone to great lengths to be sure that none of us know what he really thinks about this situation. My prediction was that Carroll would use this game to give Sanchez the opportunity to be a hero, or a loser, and then make the decision.

But as it turned out, he was almost both, but you can't really say he was either. And that leaves the QB situation in a gray area. Sanchez played heroically for most of the game (including a BRILLIANT 84 YARD, :44 SECOND 4TH QUARTER TOUCHDOWN DRIVE WITH 4 MINUTES LEFT IN THE GAME WHEN EVERYONE IN THE STADIUM BUT HIM THOUGHT USC WAS FINISHED), but he also threw those interceptions, and because USC lost the game, those will stand out in the public mind.

My take on the situation is, that we played a great team in a tough stadium that executed better than we did. Sanchez didn't play a perfect football game, but he played pretty darned great for a guy making his third start (people forget this, but the whole student section - Myself and Tyler Haskell excepted - was chanting for Booty during Leinart's first 6-8 games), and, most importantly, SANCHEZ GAVE US A CHANCE TO WIN THE GAME when Booty would have been looking for a hole to hide in.

But again, I have no idea what Carroll will do. Remember, when Sanchez broke his thumb during camp? He was out for almost two months before he could grip the ball well enough to play. This is a broken bone we're talking about. Carroll could conceivably ride the "we'll see what happens" train for weeks to come.

The bottom line is, Sanchez gave us a chance to win the game, where Booty never could have. But as long as the Trojans do so many things to beat themselves, top teams like Oregon will have no trouble finishing the job.

SANCHEZ WATCH DAY 16

PETE CARROLL ANNOUNCED AFTER PRACTICE ON THURSDAY THAT MARK SANCHEZ WILL BE THE STARTER WHEN USC VISITS THE UNIVERSITY OF OREGON ON SATURDAY. THE GAME WILL BEGIN AT HIGH NOON.

SANCHEZ WATCH PREDICTS THAT THIS GAME WILL INDEED DETERMINE THE FUTURE OF MARK SANCHEZ'S CAREER. A WIN, AND HE IS THE QUARTERBACK FOR THIS TEAM. A POOR PERFORMANCE, JOHN DAVID BOOTY TAKES BACK OVER. A GREAT PERFORMANCE FROM SANCHEZ, BUT A HARD FOUGHT LOSS? WON'T HAPPEN. USC'S DEFENSE STRUGGLES VS. RUNNING QBS LIKE DIXON, BUT THEY CORRALLED HIM LAST YEAR, AND IF ANYONE HAS THE PERSONELL TO BEAT OREGON, IT'S...WELL, I GUESS IT'S CAL BECAUSE THEY ALREADY DID IT. BUT IF IT'S ANYONE ELSE, IT'S USC. THE ONLY WAY USC LOSES IS IF THEY LOSE THE TURNOVER BATTLE, AND THAT WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE BLAMED ON THE QUARTERBACK.

THE CHIPS ARE DOWN.

VIVA SANCHEZ!!!!

SANCHEZ WATCH DAY 13

Earlier in the week I speculated that since John David Booty told the world he could start practicing again on Saturday, I assumed that he was back in playing condition and that whoever took the 1st team reps in practice on Monday would be solidified as USC's starter for the showdown at Oregon this week.

But when I said that, my wife brought something important to my attention. Namely, that John David Booty's finger is still, technically, broken.

Why was that significant? Because Pete Carroll's initials are P.C., and he lives up to them by always doing the politically expeditious thing.

Coach Carroll is no dummy. And he knows a QB controversy puts him in a no-win situation.

If he says both his qbs are healthy and he's choosing between them, he faces the wrath of the public the next time anything goes wrong. But, if he can please the public without coming off as committed either way, he's in the clear. And Booty's sort-of ok, sort-of not ok injury along with USC's schedule is providing a way for him to do just that.

All Pete Carroll has to do to avoid a QB controversy is to cite Booty's still broken finger, and start mark Sanchez this Saturday. Why? Because neither JD Booty or Mark Sanchez has a win over a good team this season (USC'S seven opponents to date have a win percentage of .283), and this Oregon game is the Trojan's only crack at a top 10 opponent.

If Sanchez stays hot and plays well in the toughest stadium in the Pac-10, USC will officially be back in the hunt for a BCS Bowl, and the sophomore will be the unquestioned leader of the team. Pete can give his, "John David Booty is a great player, but Mark Sanchez is the guy for this particular team." press conference, and no one outside of Booty's immediate family could complain.

If Sanchez starts at OU and struggles, P.C. just turns around and says, "We're sure excited for John David to get back to helping us again." And magically, Booty's finger will be healed for the Oregon State game on Nov 3.

With Sanchez the overwhelming favorite of the public, the Trojan Family would drop the hammer on Carroll for benching him unless Booty played perfect at Autzen. By playing Sanchez "because of Injury", Carroll is in the clear no matter which quarterback emerges as the clear-cut leader.

They don't call the man P.C. for nothing.

SANCHEZ WATCH DAY 13:BILL DWYER IS A POMPUS BLOWHARD

DAY 13 OF SANCHEZ WATCH OPENS TO OMINOUS, SMOKE-FILLED SKIES FROM THE EAST. FIRES FUELED BY RAGING SANTA ANA WINDS ARE BURNING CALIFORNIA. BUT THE SMOKY HOT AIR ISN'T JUST BLOWING FROM THE DESERT, IT'S WHIPPING AROUND PRETTY FIERCE IN TODAY'S LA TIMES AS WELL.

BILL DWYER, THE ARROGANT, OVER-FED, NOTRE DAME GRAD SPORTS EDITOR OF THE LA TIMES HAS ENDORSED GUESS WHO FOR USC QUARTERBACK? SINCE USC HAS NO BIGGER ENEMY ON THE LOCAL SPORTS SCENE THAN THE PERENNIALLY BIASED DWYER, HIS SELF-CONTRADICTORY, POORLY REASONED COLUMN TODAY ENDORSING JOHN DAVID BOOTY SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AN OBVIOUS INSTRUCTION ON WHAT NOT TO DO. I WON'T PROVIDE A LINK TO THAT FILTH HERE ON SANCHEZ WATCH, BUT TO SUMMARIZE, IT ARGUES THAT BOOTY SHOULD START BECAUSE OF A PAST RECORD THAT HE DOESN'T HAVE. DWYER CALLED THE LOSSES TO UCLA LAST YEAR, AND STANFORD THIS YEAR, "FLUKES" THAT WERE, "OUT OF BOOTY'S HANDS". REALLY? WERE THE 4 INTERCEPTIONS OUT OF BOOTY'S HANDS? WOW. HOW 'BOUT THE FACT THAT WE SCORED 9 POINTS AT UCLA? WAS THAT THE FAULT OF THE OTHER 10 GUYS PLAYING OFFENSE, BUT NOT THEIR LEADER?

SANCHEZ WATCH WILL NOW VOMIT ON THE FRESH CARPET OF HIS NEW OFFICE.

IN ACTUAL SANCHEZ WATCH NEWS, SANCHEZ TOOK 100% OF FIRST TEAM SNAPS AGAIN ON MONDAY.

SANCHEZ WATCH!!!

WELCOME EVERYONE TO SANCHEZ WATCH 2007!

ESPN REPORTS TODAY THAT DIRTY SANCHEZ TOOK ALL OF THE 1ST TEAM SNAPS IN THE TROJANS PRACTICE ON MONDAY.

Should the Sanchez era start on Saturday, I think you can pencil him in for at least one bonehead pick, and some missed reads. But you can also pencil him in for some athleticism that booty doesn't provide, more catchable passes, some making it happen with his feet, and (GASP!) charisma and leadership! The offense comes alive when Sanchez gets in there. And though he will indeed throw one dumb interception, he will make some great plays, AND THEN ARIZONA WILL BE THE FIRST TO WITNESS THE GREATNESS OF SANCHEZ AND NONE WILL DENY!!!!!

This Isn't Happening

If someone had told me in January that during the year 2006, The Dodgers would finally get rid of Jeff Weaver, only to watch him become a lights-out playoff pitcher who'd sinch a World Series for another team, AND told me that USC was going to have it's regular season winning streak snapped against the Oregon State Beavers, AND that the Broncos were going to lose a close game against Peyton Manning, AND that Red Auerbach was going to die, I'd have groaned and prepared myself for one of the worst sports years of my life. Now that all of those things have just happened in a single weekend, I'm in sports fan equivalent of intensive care. If I'm ever going to watch sports again, I'm going to have to ease into it, and just try to not let myself get hurt.
That might be tough because the crippling effect of this weekend wasn't just because of the losses for the teams involved, it was because of the dark clouds the weekend signaled over all their futures.

Weaver's superb post-season put a fine lid on a season when the Dodgers were constantly a day late and a dollar short, largely because of their running trend of getting bitten by former players. Whether it was Mike Piazza or Ceasar Izturis (Caesar Izturis!) killing them with game-winning hits in the regular season, or Lo Duca tagging two men out at the plate off of one throw from Sean Green in the playoffs. The Dodgers always, ALWAYS find a way to get bitten by their former players. Even the erratic Weaver, who no Dodger fan was sorry to see go, beat the Dodgers when he faced them as a Cardinal in July.

Now the Dodgers biggest stars, Maddox, Nomar, and Eric Gagne are no longer under contract. The price the team has to pay to keep them all in LA will probably be too high. It's a near certainty that at least one of them will be gone next year, and quite possible that they all could be. But the price of facing any of these dangerous players down the road might be higher.

USC didn't just lose to Oregon State this weekend, they were emberassed and exposed as an undiciplined team with too little direction from it's coaching(of course, if you read this blog, you allready knew that). SC's two point loss in Corvaliss may have been narrow, but as was the case in the Trojans' conference wins, the opposing team made things look better for the Trojans than they actually were. Oregon State's botched punt essentially gave USC a touchdown to keep them alive. The Beavers also had several untimely penalties that kept them from putting the game out of reach in the first half.

The Trojans committed four turnovers, (one coming on a should have been touchdown in the endzone) and
surrendured a humiliating punt return for touchdown on which none of the Trojans even looked interested in tackling the return man.

This is the Trojans' second season without Defensive Coordinator Ed Orgeron, and Offensive Coordinator Norm Chow. Already the precision and strategy that made the offense great are gone. So is the attitude and dicipline that enabled the defense to swarm quarterbacks and attack ball carriers.

Saturday's game in Corvalis wasn't just a loss for USC, it was proof that the Trojans are no longer the greatest program in College football. They're just another talented team. It wasn't farewell to the BCS Championship Game, it was farewell to a dynasty.

Speaking of bidding farewell to a dynasty. When I was finally able to turn the TV back on eight hours after the game I was greeted with the news that the patriarch of my favorite pro sports franchise had mercifully passed away. Red Auerbach's death came ten years after the Celtic's last championship and less than a week before the team starts its first season with a dance team.Red was always staunchly against using women in spandex to sell basketball (even eerily telling the Celtics, they'd get cheerleaders "over my dead body"), but then, he was also staunchly against using terrible teams to sell basketball too.

The Celtics are now in the second year of the fifth stage of their rebuilding process. They have one star (Paul Pierce), an unsuccessful coach and five players who are 21 or younger.
In other words, the team is really spinning it's wheels.

When I began following the C's in 1987, the team was begginning it's decline. The 1986 team's greatness was giving way to age and injury. The death of #1 draft pick Lenny Bias was still hanging over the franchise, and the death of Reggie Lewis was still to come. The Celtics haven't given fans of my generation much of anything to cheer for beyond the firing of Rick Pitino.

But there's something about Red. Something about the glint in his eye, the "I'm going to beat you, and you know it" smile, and the confidence puffing out of that fat cigar that makes us young fans feel good. Feel like, even though we've never seen a Celtics championship, that there's something about winning that only Celtics understand. That even though other teams may win, no one will ever win like Red won.

"Everyone keeps talking about the Lakers dynasty! Well, here's your dynasty, right here!!!!!!" -Red Hoisting the O' Brian Trophy after beating the Lakers in the Finals for the eighth time in eight tries. If you've ever wondered what the greatest quote in NBA history is, well, now you don't have to any more.

And really, that's what Red was about; Not X's and O's, but winning. When people think of Phil Jackson, they think of zen, or triangles. When they think Riley, Hair Gel. When you think about Red, the first word that comes to mind is "win". Auerbach was that smug old man that knew something you didn't and was going to beat you no matter what he had to do.

That's why so many of us still love the Celtics after all these years of ineptitude. We identify with that smug old man with the Cigar who was going to beat the other guy no matter what.

Now that the Celtics are in the spandex business, we'd all better have some pretty good memories.

The Broncos could have saved the weekend on Sunday because a win over the Colts would have legitimized the team as a Super Bowl contender. The Broncos played Indianapolis tight for all four quarters, but all I need to know about the team, I learned on their last drive.
With three and a half minutes in the game, and trailing by three the Broncos ran the ball on first down for no gain. They'd been running over the Colts the entire game, and the Colts had no choice but to stack the line and guard against the run.

I shouted, "Yes!" when I saw the Colts pass-vulnerable defense. And waited for Shanahan to drop the hammer.

Then the Broncos ran.

Their best bet was to throw on second down, even for short yards, and if they didn't get the first down, run on third when Indy wouldn't see it coming. Doesn't that seem more like Shanahan football than the predictable run for one yard on second down and an incomplete pass on third down?

It's against his nature, but the fact is that this season, Shanahan trusts his defense more than his quarterback. Against Kansas City that's fine. Against Indy it's not.

If you're going to beat a top team, you have to take the game from them, not hope they don't take it from you. That never works, and Shanahan doesn't usually think that way.

There are other theories for why Shanahan did what he did, but If he trusted Plummer at all, he would have passed on second. If his goal was just to run the clock out, he wouldn't have thrown on the next play. His thinking was, "If Plummer throws a pick here we're screwed. We're either going to win it on the ground, or kick."

They kicked, the Colts easily got into field goal range, game over. Super Bowl hopes dashed.

As well as Jake Plummer played on Sunday, it doesn't matter if Mike Shanahan doesn't trust him. And on Monday morning we all knew what the Broncos' ceiling is with him, and it's not the Super Bowl.

Here's hoping the Broncos give Jay Cutler a chance to take the team to a higher level before the window closes on the Broncos defense. Otherwise, I'm going to have a lot more bad weekends in the years to come.

Nepotism Loses Football Games: USC Mid-Season Report

My coverage of USC football has been pretty sparse this season and it dawned on me last week that it's really strange that I've posted waaay more about the Broncos than I have about the Trojans. Considering that I've only watched two Broncos games on tv and get the rest of my information from highlight shows, friends in the Rockies (who get all the games on CBS) and Denver newspapers.

By contrast, every USC home game is a huge day-long event for me that is anticipated for weeks in advance. I arrive at the stadium three hours before the game and never leave until well after the final gun sounds. I talk with fellow fans for hours about each game. So why, I asked myself, have I written almost nothing about the team that carries my largest investment of time, emotion, and thought? I'm best qualified to write about SC, so why don't I do it?

The only answer I've come up with is that I do this blog for fun, and thinking reminiscing on past USC games this season has been anything but fun.

Of course, I'm aware that the team I'm talking about is 6-0 and acknowledged to be among the top five in the nation, but not even that makes me happy.

Watching the other 6-0 SC teams, and even the 4-2 2002 team, I knew I was seeing something special. I knew I was watching a team that could and should win the national championship. Anyone who feels that way about this year's Trojans is delusional. And it's not going to get better, it's going to get worse.

Pete Carroll made the decision to return USC to mediocrity when he ran Offensive Coordinator Norm Chow out of town so he could give the job to his Godson, Lane Kiffen. That whole debacle made my stomach turn a bit, and reminded me of another story that should be making the whole Trojan family sick.

Bobby Bowden got a little big-headed after his national title at Florida State in 2000 and replaced his offensive coordinator with his son too. How's that turned out?

See if this sounds familiar. Mark Richt ran the offense at FSU from 1990 through 1999. During that stretch, Florida State was the best program in college football. They won their conference every season but one; they won two National Championships, and Richt coached two quarterbacks to Heisman Trophies.

Other than the years involved, that's exactly how Norm Chow's resume read at USC.

Mark Richt's last game at FSU capped an undefeated national championship, just like Norm's, and Mark Richt's replacement (using the term loosely) was the son of the Head Coach...Just like Norm's.

So if we want to see where USC is headed, we should look at where Florida State has been.

In 1990, the Seminoles remained strong. Winning 11 games, but losing in the National Championship game. Their offense did not score in the game.

Since then, It has won ten games or more only once and lost 3 or more every season. They've lost that many already this season, and are currently in last place.

Pete Carroll has built a mighty program at Southern Cal, and the team is still loaded with talent. But it is becoming more evident every game that the offense is a boat without a rudder.

Last week's game winning drive in the fourth quarter is being billed by the team as a confidence builder. "We showed there that we can play smashmouth football against anybody" Coach Steve Sarkisian bragged to the media.

What the rest of us saw is a Junior quarterback crapping his pants AT HOME with a 21 point lead against one of the worst defenses in the Pac-10. Booty was playing so bad at that point, he was only allowed to throw one pass on the drive. It was was a four yard screen, which he missed by three yards.

The Trojans have enough talent to run up the middle 12 times on the same drive against ASU, but what's going to happen when Booty assumes the fetal position against Oregon or Notre Dame? What's going to happen when Lane Kiffen's ultra-predictable play calling becomes an easy read for Jeff Tedford's defense?

Lane Kiffen has repeatedly shown an unwillingness to make in-game adjustments, and an inability keep defenses guessing with play calling. His refusal to throw the ball against Texas when it was working cost SC the National Championship last year. This year, the Trojans are running on fumes of former glory, and coasting into mediocrity.

Seperated at Birth?

As a Trojan, choosing sides for the UCLA-Notre Dame game on Saturday I think I felt a little of what Grady Little must have gone through this season when he picked a relief pitcher from the Dodger Bullpen. I didn't particularly like any of my options, and I knew whomever I picked stood an excellent chance of doing something stupid to let me down in the end.

But, cheering for UCLA in the fourth quarter I was continually impressed by their ability to put pressure on Quinn and stifle the Irish offense. I had been equally impressed by Cowan's ability to come off the bench and make big throws against the supposedly much improved (snicker) Notre Dame defense on the road.

So when the UCLA defense forced a punt midway through the fourth quarter and forced the Irish to punt, it felt like UCLA had a good chance to fight its way through the echos and come up with the upset. The Bruins had been averaging almost seven yards per pass attempt, and the Irish we're reeling, so it seemed like the obvious move to run some play action, and have Cowan work the underneath routs the Irish had been giving him all game. All the Bruins needed was one good scoring drive to put the game on ice.

But Karl Dorrell didn't want to mount another scoring drive. He wanted the game to be over right then and there.

UCLA was the unranked team visiting the national powerhouse. UCLA was the team that did not have a national championship, or even a conference victory on the line. UCLA was a team the lead in the fourth quarter with nothing to lose, and a program establishing win to gain. But then in a moment, UCLA ceased to be the hunter, and became the hunted.

UCLA averadged less than one yard per carry on Saturday, but Dorrell ran the ball anyway. Ran it again and again. Terrified of an incomplete pass stopping the clock. Terrified, he would have to play more football. His fear played right into the Irish's hands. UCLA had two possessions the rest of the game. They ran six plays that gained a net seven yards.

On Defense, they went away from the blitz packages that had been effective at forcing Quinn into bad situations the whole game. Instead, they used a prevent defense that allowed for the short passes that Notre Dame's offense thrives on. Begging the Irish to take anything but the endzone on it's last possession, Quinn took everything the Bruins gave him. That was enough.

When Notre Dame Senior Receiver Eddie Vedder caught one of those short passes and stumbled through the Bruin's secondary for the game winning touchdown, you'd have had to have been Dorrel himself to be surprised at the outcome.

UCLA's gameplan had worked for three and a half quarters. Then it was abandoned. By changing gears at the most critical point in the game, Dorrell was assuming his team would fail if he allowed them to continue. He was to afraid to find out if his team was good enough emphatically win game. It was so much easier to find out if the Irish were good enough to steal it.

UCLA's players worked hard and effectively for for 54:30 at Notre Dame Stadium. Dorrell's cowardice stole the last 5:30 from them. And that was all the Irish needed.